Trevor Tracker (Week 18): A Fitting Finale

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Well, that was a fun way to wrap up the season.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns to lead Jacksonville to a 41-7 win over Tennessee to clinch the division for the fifth time in franchise history.

Let's take a look at Lawrence's Week 18 performance through the lens of some passing splits.

Data included in charts courtesy of PFF. See bottom of article for a glossary.

• Lawrence continues to stack strong performances. He ranked second in passer rating, third in big-time throw rate, and fourth in PFF grade among all quarterbacks in Week 18.
• According to NFL Pro, he generated +20.3 Expect Points Added (EPA) on his dropbacks, the second-most in a game in his career. Three of his top five career performances by EPA have come against Tennessee.
• His most impressive throw of the game was this flick to Brenton Strange with a free rusher in his face.

• My favorite play of his from the game was this dot to Parker Washington on a dagger concept. Lawrence wants to get the ball out at the end of his dropback before pressure can arrive, but he's forced to double-clutch because Washington hasn't broken his route yet. Lawrence loses both momentum and the necessary space to step into the throw, yet he delivers a dime anyway.

• It wasn't the cleanest rep, but it sure was impressive.
• Same goes for this next play. Lawrence's progression goes right to left, from Washington to Strange to Brian Thomas Jr. to checkdown. Tennessee is playing a zone-match defense with a single-high safety over the top, so it's basically Cover 3, which means that safety will probably help cover Washington's deep crossing route from the slot. Upon the snap, Lawrence fakes a handoff, confirms the coverage, and gets ready to rip a pass to Strange – but he's not open.
• Lawrence guessed right that the safety would be ready to run with Washington, but the orbit motion (motion behind the QB) from Jakobi Meyers didn't get Tennessee's linebackers to budge. Because Lawrence assumed the short pass to Strange would be there, he didn't get enough depth in his drop, so pressure arrived quickly and he was forced to bail from the pocket.
• Fortunately, Lawrence just so happens to be one of the NFL's best passers when rolling left. He escaped the pressure, eyed Thomas downfield, and uncorked the pass with his iconic Jumpman form (scroll down for image).

• Lawrence stayed in Sunday's 41-7 win far longer than he needed to, but by playing into the fourth quarter, he reached 4,000 passing yards on the season for the third time in his career. Only one NFL quarterback has more such seasons since Lawrence entered the league in 2021 (Jared Goff, 4).

• By passing for three scores in the first half, Lawrence also set a franchise record for most total touchdowns in a single season (38). Read 3 Numbers to Know From the Jaguars' Week 18 Win for a detailed breakdown on each of those three touchdowns.

• Lawrence's timing was off in the past two clips, but for much of the game, he was dialed in.
• Here's the pass that got him over 4,000 yards: another dagger concept to Washington. The timing of the play is much better this time around.

• Early in the game, Lawrence waited patiently as Thomas cooked the defender opposite him.

• Lawrence is a difficult assignment for any defense because he has an arm that can target any area of the field and a brain that can diagnose coverages in a flash. That leads to most of his high-caliber plays, which are downfield passes thrown well before the pass rush gets home.
• Part of his growth over the second half of the season has been short-area efficiency. Lawrence finished Sunday's game 9/10 for 77 yards and a touchdown on quick throws (dropbacks with a 'time to throw' under 2.5 seconds), per NFL Pro.

• That "RTG" column is gorgeous, isn't it?

• On bootleg rollouts, Lawrence has done a fantastic job of buying time and waiting for throwing windows to open.

• Pro Bowl DT Jeffrey Simmons beat LG Ezra Cleveland for a sack on the game's first play from scrimmage, and an overload blitz by Tennessee prevented a long touchdown to Thomas.

• Otherwise, Jacksonville fared well against pressure on Sunday.
• This was a nice throw by Lawrence against a five-man rush on 2nd down. Meyers was open over the middle, but second-year LB Cedric Gray (a future Pro Bowler, in my opinion) timed his blitz perfectly to beat LT Cole Van Lanen and get clear access to Lawrence.

• According to NFL Pro, Lawrence leads all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (+0.47) and success rate (60.5%) when he is not pressured since Jacksonville acquired Jakobi Meyers in Week 10. The Jaguars' offense should cruise against any defense that can't apply constant pressure during the 2025-26 NFL playoffs.
• We'll be breaking down a playoff game next week. Let's freakin' go.

Thanks for reading! Check back soon for more Jaguars analysis.

Stats Glossary

• DB% = Dropback Rate – for the given passing split
• ADJ% = Adjusted Completion Percentage – "the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed)"
• TTT = Time To Throw – a high TTT might suggest the passer is hunting for big plays; a low TTT might suggest the passer is checking down quickly)
• ADOT = Average Depth of Target – a high ADOT might suggest the passer is hunting for big plays; a low ADOT might suggest the passer is checking down quickly
• RTG = NFL Passer Rating – (Completion % + Yds/Att + TD Rate + INT Rate)/6] x 100
• PFF = Overall PFF Grade – "each player is given a grade of -2 to +2 in 0.5 increments on a given play with 0 generally being the average or 'expected' grade ... the plus-minus grades are then converted to a 0-100 scale at the game and season level"
• BTT% = Big Time Throw Rate – "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window"
• TWP% = Turnover Worthy Play Rate – "a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.