Super Bowl LX Betting Guide: Props, Parlays, TD Scorers, MVP Values, & More

The Jacksonville Jaguars join the Cleveland Browns, the Detroit Lions, and the Houston Texans as the only NFL teams to have never reached the Super Bowl.

Yet the two-week buildup to the final game of the season has become one of my favorite times of year. I cram preview guides like a law student, knowing that we're about to go more than 200 days without pro football – and more than 200 days without the chance to bet on pro football.

Below are my favorite wagers for Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.

Player props

Kenneth Walker III under 72.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

Fading uberathletic players who can gain 20-plus yards on any given snap always feels a little gut-wrenching. If you can manage your nerves, though, it pays off more often than not.

Walker exploded for 111 total yards and an outrageous touchdown in the NFC Championship Game against a stout Rams defense. It won't get any easier tonight against the Patriots' front, though.

New England allowed 5.0 yards per carry (734 yards on 148 carries) and 7 rushing touchdowns without Milton Williams on the field this season, per ESPN. The star defensive tackle and marquee free agent signing missed five games with a high ankle sprain during the season. When Williams was on the field, the Patriots allowed just 3.7 yards per carry (1,209 yards on 331 carries) and 4 scores.

The only running backs to post at least 50 yards against New England in a game Williams played this season – including playoffs – are Sean Tucker (53 yards in Week 10) and Breece Hall (58 yards in Week 11). The Williams-led Patriots held De'Von Achane to 30 yards, Derrick Henry to 49 yards, and James Cook to 46 yards.

The Pats are loaded at defensive tackle with Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga playing alongside Williams. So maybe Walker can bounce some runs outside?

Nope. It's not like Achane, Henry, or Cook – all elite perimeter rushes – found any success there. New England ranks third in adjusted yards per carry allowed on outside rushes, per FTN.

Though Walker could certainly break off a long run, he's often liable to be tackled behind the line of scrimmage. And as much as the Patriots will prioritize containing Smith-Njigba, it'll be imperative to stop Walker so as to force Darnold into 3rd-and-long situations.

I also like this recommendation from Hayden Winks.

If you really want to be a sicko, my favorite Kenneth Walker play is 1st carry lower than 3.5 yards. Here's how often a carry goes over that: all NFL RB runs (45.2%), early-down RB runs (46.5%), RB runs against the Patriots (44.4%), early-down RB runs against the Patriots (44.8%), postseason RB runs against the Patriots (24.5%), RB runs with Milton Williams active (41.5%), all Kenneth Walker runs (47.0%), all Kenneth Walker early-down runs (46.0%). If we get priced at a coin flip, the coin is weighted.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 92.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)

Smith-Njigba is expected to be shadowed by fellow Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez.

Honestly, I don't love the matchup for Gonzo. He's a fantastic player – I just don't think anybody is equipped to handle #11 one-on-one.

The good news for Gonzalez is that he won't be going into battle alone. The game would not be close if that were the case.

As plenty of analysts have already speculated, New England could double-team Smith-Njigba with Bill Belichick's old "1 Double" game plan.

Like Belichick told Chad Ochocinco back in 2009, Vrabel figures to tell Smith-Njigba at some point tonight: "Not gonna watch you run in the endzone and spike the ball here."

It's worth noting that JSN's worst game of the season (4 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards) came against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Flores coached under Belichick for over a decade; Vrabel played under him for eight seasons.

Smith-Njigba could have a productive night that helps the Seahawks, and still finish well shy of 93 yards.

Rhamondre Stevenson over 23.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

Stevenson saw a season-high 93.8% snap share in the AFC Championship Game as New England's coaches trusted him over rookie TreVeyon Henderson. I don't want to assume the same workload for the Super Bowl, especially since the Patriots could use Henderson's speed against the Seahawks defense, but maybe Stevenson does dominate usage again.

Either way, Stevenson will be involved through the air. He's earned multiple targets in nine straight games since returning from a toe injury in November (with 22-plus recieiving yards in six of those contests). Plus, Seattle runs a lot of deep zone coverages to prevent explosive passes and invite checkdown passes. That leads to higher target shares for running backs.

According to ESPN, running backs are targeted against Cover 2 (17%) more than any other coverage over the past three years. The Seahawks deploy Cover 2 on a league-high 32% of snaps this season.

Maybe the Patriots will adjust their gameplan accordingly, but if anything, that could just lead to more receiving work for Stevenson. Running backs are heavily targeted against Seattle but they don't pick up much yardage because they're usually the final read in the progression, so defenders are prepared to rally and tackle. New England could simply target its running backs immediately so they have more room to run before defenders can arrive.

This prop is also enticing because, well, the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites. The Patriots figure to throw the ball early and often tonight.

Same-game parlays

Rashid Shadeed over 24.5 receiving yards + under 1.5 receptions (+1600, DraftKings)

Same-game parlays are generally a trap, as sportsbooks want consumers to stack correlating bets at prices that aren't as good as they seem. We can beat the system by stacking contrasting bets instead.

One way to do this is by looking at wideouts with big-play ability on low volume. That's Shaheed. The dynamic wide receiver/return man has exactly 1 catch for a whopping 51 yards in the playoffs, and he had 1 or fewer catches in six of nine games with the Seahawks in the regular season. He'll get a deep target or two if/when Patriots dedicate extra attention to Smith-Njigba.

Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions + under 44.5 receiving yards (+561, FanDuel)

Diggs leads the Patriots in targets (16) and catches (11) through three playoff games, but he also has a measly average depth of target (5.6 yards). Whether he's the first read or a checkdown option, the 32-year-old wideout is not being deployed down the field.

Seattle's defense wants opposing quarterbacks to throw short passes, as mentioned in the Stevenson blurb. Mike Macdonald calls for two-high safety structures at the NFL's third-highest clip to take away the deep pass; checkdowns are left open by design so that quarterbacks will play conservatively.

Diggs will appear to look open on his underneath crossers, hitches, and option routes, but as soon as he catches the ball, he'll be swarmed by Seahawks. Macdonald's unit allowed the fewest yards per target and explosive play rate to wideouts during the regular season.

Diggs longest reception under 17.5 yards (-112, FanDuel) is also appealing. His longest so far this postseason went for 14 yards.

AJ Barner under 25.5 receptions + anytime touchdown scorer (+750)

Though I expect the Patriots to force Darnold to look at non-JSN options, Barner isn't a pass-catcher I expect to benefit much. He's more valuable as a blocker and could end up staying in to protect if New England continues blitzing at a high rate (41% this postseason). Even if he collects 5 targets, 4 of them could quick throws to flat with minimal yardage gained.

There's also the Elijah Arroyo of it all. Seattle's rookie tight end was ramping up his usage before landing on injured reserve in Week 14 with a knee injury. Arroyo was activated for the NFC Championship Game, and while he didn't play a snap in that game, it could mean he'll be ready for a role in the Super Bowl.

All that said, Barner has 5 end zone targets and 6 red zone touchdowns this season. Each rank behind only Smith-Njigba on the team.

Seattle clearly has an affinity for Barner in scoring position, as he also serves as their de facto quarterback on tush push plays. Wouldn't it be hysterical to cash in on a "0 catch, 1 rush, 1 TD" box score?

Sam Darnold over 231.5 passing yards, Sam Darnold over 1.5 passing touchdowns, Seahawks moneyline (+240, DraftKings)

Might as well take this parlay over Darnold's MVP ticket (+120, DraftKings).

TD scorers

AJ Barner anytime touchdown scorer (+240, FanDuel)

See above for analysis on Barner.

Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown scorer (+260, FanDuel)

I want to get some exposure to Kupp and this appears to be the best avenue.

The former Super Bowl MVP will enjoy one of the best individual matchups of the evening against Marcus Jones in the slot. Jones has easily given up the most touchdowns (7) and yards after catch (231) of any Patriots cornerback this season.

Jones does have good speed – certainly more than Kupp has at this point in his career – so the latter won't be able to run away from the former. But I like Kupp's odds to beat Jones at the catch point once the Seahawks get into scoring position and the field becomes condensed.

Drake Maye anytime touchdown scorer (+280, FanDuel)

We already saw Maye notch a rushing score in the AFC Championship Game.

Similar to what we saw with the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence, the Patriots have increased Maye's rushing as the season has progressed. Quarterbacks generally run more when the stakes rise. According to Fantasy Life, Maye has 2.3 designed rush attempts per playoff game compared to 1.2 during the regular season.

I also like Maye's odds to score the game's first touchdown (+1300, DraftKings) and especially his odds to be the game's leading rusher (+700, FanDuel).

MVP values

For the Patriots: Kayshon Boutte (+12500, FanDuel)

The consensus take is that Maye will have to play like Superman for the Patriots to win. Maybe he'll literally channel Cam Newton and embarrass Seattle with his legs. If he has a tremendous day passing, though, there will need to be a few hero catches by a receiver to allow for a superhero performance by Maye.

Boutte fits the bill. If you haven't been paying attention to the former LSU phenom this season, you've been missing out.

Boutte leads the NFL this season with a 21.2% catch rate over expected, per Next Gen Stats. Most of his production has come from carnivalesque catches like the one shown above, as Boutte also leads the league with a 30% rate of deep fade or go routes. He is New England's downfield threat.

If you like the prediction for Boutte to have a big game but can't quite see him winning MVP, consider betting on him to pace all players in receiving yards (+1300, DraftKings).

For the Seahawks: Uchenna Nwosu (+22500, FanDuel)

Quarterbacks and wide receivers have won 20 of the past 22 Super Bowl MVPs, with the exceptions being LB Malcolm Smith (2014) and OLB Von Miller (2016).

It's rare to see a defender win the award, and predicting which one will make the game-changing play is a pure guess.

So why Nwosu? Though his name isn't as well-recognized as several of his Seahawks teammates, the eight-year NFL veteran is among the most lethal pass rushers we'll watch tonight. According to Sports Info Solutions, his 25% pressure rate from a wide 9 technique (aligned far outside the offensive tackle) ranked second during the regular season behind only Micah Parsons.

Nwosu can cause problems against New England's entire line, and especially rookie left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell's 25.5 pass blocking grade on true pass sets ranks third-worst among 74 qualifying linemen this postseason, as he's allowed the most sacks of any player in that span (3). The Patriots' fourth overall pick struggles to anchor and is sure to a focus of Mike Macdonald's pressure plans.

If you like the prediction for Nwosu to have a big game but can't quite see him winning MVP, consider betting on him to record a strip sack (+1900, DraftKings).

Game lines

In terms of DVOA opponent-adjusted metrics, the 2025 Seahawks are one of the most efficient teams in modern NFL history.

The Seahawks and the Rams have looked like and graded out as the league's two best teams this season, and Seattle just beat L.A. in the NFC Championship game.

Pretty much any team would be underdogs against this juggernaut group. So, of course Seattle will face the ultimate underdog on Super Bowl Sunday.

I'd be a bit nervous if I were a Hawks fan. According to clevanalytics.com, there have been 13 other Super Bowl matchups with an underdog of at least three points since 2000. 11 of those 13 underdogs (85%) covered the spread, and 7 of the 13 (54%) won outright.

As we broke down in the Player Props section above, the Patriots seem well-equipped to take away Walker and Smith-Njigba. This game will come down to quarterback play, as it so often does.

Will Darnold or Maye make more big-time plays to lead their team to victory?

When the Super Bowl matchup was set, the first bets I placed were Seahawks -4.5 (-110) and Seahawks -9.5 (+165). I'm sticking with those as my final recommendations. Former players and coaches have publicly said the two-week buildup usually leads to overthinking, so I'm not going to overthink this one. The Patriots can win this game but they're more likely to lose it. I see this Super Bowl looking a lot like last year's, when a brilliant quarterback couldn't overcome a dominant pass rush.

I also like this recommendion from Nate Tice to take Seahawks -0.5 in the first quarter.

The Seahawks’ offense ranks fifth in EPA per play and Sam Darnold is first in EPA per dropback on the first 15 plays of the game. The Patriots’ defense tends to struggle on opening drives before adjusting and clamping down; the Pats rank 27th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate this season while giving up an explosive pass rate of 23.4% during those first 15 plays of the game.

Git'r done, Sam!

Final prediction: Seahawks 23, Patriots 13.

Thanks for reading! Enjoy the game, and check back soon for Jaguars analysis.