TOOT TOOT: Top Props for Jaguars vs Texans in Week 3
The hype train is leaving the station.
Welcome back!
We fell back down to Earth a bit last week. Joe Burrow didn't record a carry in the three drives he played, Travis Hunter fell one catch short of our expecations, and Brenton Strange didn't pull in his lone deep target. Shoutout to Cam Little, though.
2025 betting record: 4-4 (50%, -0.43 units)
Below are my favorite Week 3 wagers for Jaguars (-1.5) vs Texans.
Nick Chubb under 51.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Despite his extensive injury history and soon approaching 30th birthday, Chubb has played fairly well this season. His 63.3 PFF run grade ranks 30th among 55 backs, and his 5 missed tackles forced ranks 10th.
The problem for Chubb, his backfield mates, and Houston in general is poor blocking up front. The Texans rank 27th in ESPN's run block win rate metric, and according to Sports Info Solutions, only the Giants have a worse rate of blown run blocks.
Houston's rushing success rate sits at 26.8%. The last team to finish a season with a figure below 30% was the 2021 Texans.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars have allowed the eighth-lowest rushing success rate at 34.2% this season. They join the Chiefs as the only teams that have yet to allow a designed rush of 15+ yards (excluding scrambles).
Long story short: Chubb is still a solid player but faces a brutal matchup this week.
Travis Etienne over 53.5 rushing yards (-115, HardRock)
Long story short: Etienne is a great player who faces a great matchup this week.
His 214 rushing yards ranks second in the NFL. Yes, a sizable portion came from his 71-yarder in Week 1 (the longest run by any player this season) – but if you remove each player's longest run, Etienne would still rank second in rushing yards.
The ACC's all-time leading rusher is aided by an offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate and second in PFF run block grade.
Jacksonville's 46.4% rushing success rate ranks sixth so far this season. On one hand, that efficiency has come against meager defenses in Carolina and Cincinnati. On the other hand, Houston ranks dead last in rushing success rate allowed (50%).
The Texans boast perhaps the league's most talented defense, but all of their starpower lies on the perimeter. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter control the edges of the trenches while Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock patrol the secondary. The spine of the defense is not as strong.
Expect the Jaguars to try to take advantage with a run-heavy approach on Sunday – especially after getting away from the run more than they should have in Week 2's loss.
I also like Etienne to have over 13.5 rushing yards in the first quarter (-114 on FanDuel). Shoutout to my buddy Dylan for noticing this trend – in each of its first two games, Jacksonville has won the coin toss and elected to receive. Most teams defer. That makes first quarter props very intriguing for Jaguars players, chiefly Etienne, who remains the starter and figures to play the first drive or two before Bhayshul Tuten is mixed into the rotation.
Bhayshul Tuten to score a touchdown (+240, FanDuel) – 0.5 units
This was the only prop I could find for Tuten (or Parker Washington).
It was a pass for me initially. As I'll write about more in this week's Numbers to Know preview, Brian Thomas Jr. has the team's only rush attempt inside the opposing 10-yard line compared to 8 pass attempts (!) from Trevor Lawrence.
However. After further review, I'm in.
As noted above, Jacksonville has multiple reasons to establish the run on Sunday – I don't see why that strategy wouldn't apply to goal-to-go situations. The Jaguars had some disastrous moments when passing near the endzone in Week 2.
And assuming a running back finally notches a carry inside the 10-yard line this week, I don't see why it wouldn't be Tuten. While Etienne has a somewhat upright style and is more effective as a tackle-breaker in open space, Tuten has already flashed as a powerful interior rusher.
Plus, Tuten has the ability to score at any level of the field. He doesn't require goalline carries to hit pay dirt. This bet could hit in a variety of ways.
Cam Little over 1.5 field goals (-120, HardRock)
The second-year pro went 4/4 in the season opener and 2/2 last week.
Jacksonville may not move the ball as effectively against Houston as they were able to in its first two games, but that could work in Little's favor if they have to settle for field goals. Plus, the Jaguars will have some favorable starting field positions if the Texans' offense continues to flop.
Liam Coen to win Coach of the Year (+1400, DraftKings & FanDuel)
We've only seen two games of the Coen experience – both being against likely non-playoff teams – but I'm sold.
Coen looks legit as an offensive orchestrator, and more importantly, he seems to be a culture cultivator. From Trevor Lawrence being a more vocal leader to assistant coaches no longer golf clapping on the sidelines, Jacksonville's energy is different this year.
I've seen enough. Coen is capable of earning this award. My biggest concern is simply that a veteran coach like Shane Steichen or Matt LeFleur will win it over a rookie coach from a small-market team. Still, it's a risk I am willing to take.
Thank you for reading!
I'd love to hear your own favorite bets in the comments or the Discord chat.
