Why Liam Coen's failed 4th down call should excite Jaguars fans

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To say the past month of Jacksonville football has been a rollercoaster of a ride would be lazy. These 2025 Jaguars are a paranormal wave, with crests as high as the sky and troughs as low as the gates of Hades.

Weeks 9 and 12 saw the Jaguars scrape by in overtime; Week 10 was arguably the worst loss in franchise history; and Week 11 was perhaps the team’s best win since the last time they faced the Chargers. 

The volatility of that stretch of games was captured in Sunday’s contest. Trevor Lawrence had 3 interceptions and a lost fumble, though it was somewhat equalized by his 3 touchdowns and a dime in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal. You already know the last time an NFL team won with a -4 or worse turnover margin (see the hyperlink above). The last time a team did it in the regular season was the Raiders in Week 17 of 2020.

Liam Coen's squad may be an enigma, but they're also... kinda good.

The Jaguars survived the Arizona desert by pulling out a 27-24 win over the Cardinals on Sunday. With wins in Sin City and the Bay Area as well, the team is 3-0 on the West Coast this season.

At 7-4, Jacksonville ranks 11th in win percentage and trails by just one game in AFC South standings. They're 12th in DVOA efficiency and 13th in point differential. Maybe they won't make much noise in the postseason, but three of their final six games of the regular season are against the 1-10 Titans and 2-9 Jets – it's looking like this team will smash its preseason win total projection of 7.5 wins.

Despite Lawrence continuing to play inconsistently, Brian Thomas Jr. experiencing a sophomore slump, and Travis Hunter being on injured reserve, Coen has found a way to rally the troops. Jacksonville is 5-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer; its record in one-score games was 10-17 under Doug Pederson (2022-24).

Coen and Pederson's coaching profiles are pretty similar. They were raised in football families, broke program records as college quarterbacks, received mentorship from legendary offensive coaches, coordinated some of the league's top scoring units, and were hired by the Jaguars to help develop Lawrence and revamp the franchise.

They both are fairly aggressive when it comes to fourth-down decision making. Coen and Pederson spent considerable time with organizations at the forefront of the football analytics movement (the Rams and the Eagles, respectively). They grew accustomed to trusting The Numbers. Coen responded bluntly to a question about a fourth down call in Week 2: "It’s a 100 percent a 'go.' That’s a 100 percent a 'go.'"

For Coen, though, it's not just about The Numbers. As he's said throughout his 10 months on the job, it's all about The Players.

He had another debatable fourth down decision in Week 12.

Jacksonville led by three points with 1:44 remaining in regulation. The ball was at Arizona’s 19-yard line, so Coen could’ve opted to ‘take the points’ and send out Cam Little for a 36-yard field goal try. A made kick would’ve forced the Cardinals to play for a touchdown with no timeouts remaining.

Instead, Coen trusted his guys – not just his in-house analytics staff, but his depth chart as well.

“We've been aggressive all season when it comes to those decisions," Coen said postgame. "Us growing as an offense, us growing as a team is trusting them in some of those moments to go make those plays and go execute in those situations."

According to ESPN's win probability model, the Jaguars' decision to go for it gave them a 94.9% chance to win. That figure would've dropped to 85.9% had they sent out the field goal unit. A 9% swing is pretty massive, so it was objectively a wise decision if you ask The Numbers.

Ultimately, the play did not convert a first down, so plenty of folks will point to Coen’s decision to go for it as one that almost cost them the game. Yet the process was sound. 

What if Little attempted a field goal, only to miss it? Or what if he made it, only for the Cardinals to score a game-winning touchdown? Coen rightly played to win the game rather than playing not to lose it.

While his decision on fourth down may have been sharp, his playcall was rough. It was a play action bootleg out of heavy personnel designed to get the ball in Travis Etienne's hands out of the backfield. Etienne was bottled up, and Lawrence had to chuck a prayer 30 yards downfield. If Coen wanted to pass in the situation, he shouldn't have called a play that's only meant to target one route.

Lawrence's pass fell incomplete and the Cardinals went on to force overtime. But the Jaguars eventually won.

Maybe the fact that he put the game in The Players' hands gave them the energy to finish the job, even with his playcall not putting them in the best spot to succeed.

"It didn't work out this time," Coen said, "But hopefully those guys get the message that ultimately we need to go execute in those moments and for us to close people out on our terms.”

“Guys stepped up. Nobody flinched, nobody was walking around, head down, disappointed or frustrated. You’ve got to keep playing and that’s been the message for the last few weeks is to just keep playing. These guys closed it out when we needed to.”

My theory that Pederson made aggressive decisions because he had trust in The Numbers, but not The Players, is only that: a theory. Maybe his confidence in the roster was unwavering.

The real difference between he and Coen is not the amount of trust they possess – it's the amount of trust they disseminate. Coen's belief has infiltrated the locker room. The messages that he's preached in his first season as an NFL head coach, from "fighting through adversity" to "tough, both mentally and physically", seems to have struck a chord.

The Jaguars have been to hell and back. Now, they're on the brink of going somewhere they've never gone before.

I'm not promising Jacksonville will make it to the Super Bowl this season... but with Coen at the helm, this franchise should be trusted far more than it has been over the past two decades.

The Jaguars found themselves a coach.

Thanks for reading! Check back soon for more Jaguars analysis.