3 Numbers to Know from the Jaguars' win over the Panthers

Welcome to Numbers to Know!

I originally planned on highlighting five key statistics to preview and recap each Jaguars game, but three is a more reasonable amount. I want to really dive deep into these figures. The content plan will be fluid throughout the season as I determine the best ways to provide analysis for y'all.

Here are 3 Numbers to Know following Jacksonville's Week 1 win over Carolina.

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The Jaguars forced 3 turnovers on Sunday. This is notable for two reasons:

1) Turnovers are important. A Harvard study found that teams have a 69.6% win percentage with a +1 turnover margin, a 83.9% win percentage with a +2 turnover margin, and a 90.7% win percentage with a +3 turnover margin.

2) Jacksonville forced a league-worst 9 turnovers in 2024. In fact, they were just the second team since 1970 to only have one game with multiple forced turnovers, per ESPN's Bill Barnwell.

As today's game showed, turnovers are fluky. Interceptions are usually dictated by the quarterback, and the way a fumble bounces is anybody's guess. "Both interceptions and fumbles are completely unpredictable from season to season at the team level," Josh Hermsmeyer wrote for FiveThirtyEight.

So, we should've expected that Jacksonville's turnover numbers would regress to the mean in 2025, but it's still nice to see it come to fruition.

Let's take a look at each turnover, starting with the second-quarter interception.

The Jaguars ran a play that looked like classic Cover 1 Man but was really a man-match coverage. Intended receiver Xavier Legette ran post Foye Oluokun and appeared to be open on an intermediate crossing route, but Eric Murray quickly picked up the assignment and made an outstanding break on the route to force a pass breakup. His individual effort led to the ball being tipped into Oluokun's awaiting arms.

Last year, Jacksonville allowed the most passing yards and the most passes of 20+ yards. Volatile play by the safety unit was a big part of that. It's great to see Murray already making a difference as a veteran free agent signing.

Now for the second-quarter fumble.

On 3rd-and-10 with under a minute remaining in the second half, the Jaguars sent four pass rushers with zone coverage on the backend. Pressure from Josh Hines-Allen (who had a great game) forced Bryce Young to step up in the pocket and take off scrambling. Oluokun started this turnover after finishing the first – he punched the ball out of Young's grip in textbook fashion, and Jourdan Lewis came up with the fumble recovery.

Neat stat for Oluokun – he has 10+ tackles in four consecutive season openers, the longest active streak in the NFL.

And now for the fourth-quarter interception.

Facing another obvious passing situation, this time with under a minute remaining in the game, the Jaguars again sent four rushers and played zone coverage. Hines-Allen and Travon Walker applied pressure to make Young throw a checkdown, but it was a high pass that went off the receiver's fingertips. Lewis wrangled the ball in with one hand for perhaps the day's biggest highlight.

The Jaguars also forced two turnovers on downs, and they even had a third interception – a pick-six by Andrew Wingard – though it was knocked off the scoreboard due to a holding penalty on Lewis. Alas. It was a great overall performance in Anthony Campanile's first game as defensive coordinator.