Jaguars Playoff Preview: Key Stats, X Factors, Bold Predictions

For just the fifth time since 1999, Jacksonville is in the dance.

Liam Coen's Jaguars, winners of eight straight games with a preposterous +153 point differential in that span, are peaking at the right time. They'll look to make a statement in their postseason opener against reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

The 2025-26 NFL postseason has arrived — and seemingly, so have the Jags.

Here's everything you need to know before playoff football begins.

Key Stats

Trevor Lawrence ranks first in EPA per dropback and success rate among all quarterbacks since the Jaguars acquired Jakobi Meyers in Week 10 (per NFL Pro).

• As we all know, Lawrence has been on a tear during Jacksonville's current eight-game win streak. He ranks top three among all quarterbacks in pretty much any metric you can think of (including EPA per dropback and success rate) in that span.
• The fact that Lawrence is the league's most efficient quarterback on unpressured dropbacks specifically is a good thing. A 2018 PFF study confirmed that passing performance from a clean pocket is far more stable than performance from under pressure. We would be less confident in Lawrence entering the postseason if he'd been dominating on pressured dropbacks because such plays, while memorable, are volatile. We can't rely on those plays to forecast future production.
• With that said, Lawrence has also been impressive when facing pressure, especially against extra rushers. He ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt, passer rating, and PFF passing grade on blitzed dropbacks since Week 11.
• Over the second half of the season, opposing defenses have recognized that Jacksonville's offense is nearly impossible to stop without a dominant four-man pass rush. Teams that don't have that luxury are forced to blitz, despite Lawrence being so efficient against those looks, because it's their only shot to force a negative play.
• The Jaguars should expect to face plenty of mugged-up alignments (when the linebacker(s) walk up to the line of scrimmage before the snap). The best way to get this offense to make an error is by crowding bodies at the line of scrimmage, forcing Lawrence to adjust the protection, and hoping he doesn't guess which way the blitz is coming. Most pressure plans that involve a simulated (delayed) blitz won't get home before Lawrence gets rid of the ball.

Jacksonville ranks 31st in EPA per designed rush and rushing success rate since the Meyers trade (per SūmerSports).

• One of the biggest things flying under the radar in Jacksonville is just how bad its rushing attack has been as of late. This is especially surprising after the ground game was carrying the offense in the first half of the season.
• It's easy to overlook poor rushing efficiency when the passing production has been so dazzling, not to mention when the team is decimating every opponent it comes across. Winning fixes everything.
• With how well Lawrence and the dropback game is currently operating, the Jaguars don't require a lethal rush attack to make it deep in the playoffs. Yet it'd be nice to get something out of that unit.
• According to Sports Info Solutions, Jacksonville's blown block rate on run plays rose from 2.69% in Weeks 1-10 to 3.28% in Weeks 11-18. And Travis Etienne has been stuffed on a league-high 25.6% of rushes in the second half of the season after being stuffed on 17.0% of rushes through the first 10 weeks.
• Etienne's production has dropped in terms of yards per game (72.9 to 56.4), yards per carry (4.9 to 3.6), and 1st down run rate (20.7% to 16.0%). However, his rate of broken/missed tackles forced has gone up (14.1% to 14.4%), which indicates that he's still running the ball well; he just has less room to run now.
• You could certainly chalk up Jacksonville's midseason decline in run blocking to injuries. Its entire starting five from the season opener (Walker Little, Ezra Cleveland, Robert Hainsey, Patrick Mekari, and Anton Harrison) all missed at least one game in 2025.
• There is a remote possibility that Coen was saving the good stuff for the postseason. We'll just have to wait to find out.

Antonio Johnson finished the regular season as the league's highest graded safety (per PFF).

• Woah!
• Now, nobody should take this as gospel. Johnson is not the best safety in the NFL. He wouldn't even make most people's Third-Team All-Pro lists.
• Johnson's grade is likely a product of impact plays; he was the only NFL player this season to record 5+ interceptions and 2+ sacks. The only other players to do so in the past decade are Jordan Poyer (2x), Shaquille Leonard, and Landon Collins.
• The third-year safety is the poster child of Jacksonville's band of breakout players. Johnson was thrown into the starting lineup after the Week 8 bye due to an injury to Eric Murray. He wasn't an immediate impact player, but as he grew more comfortable in Anthony Campanile's scheme, Johnson became invaluable to the operation. He's lined up all over the field and executed a range of assignments, from manning the middle of the field as the post safety to filling in run gaps in big nickel packages.
• Johnson has specifically helped Jacksonville to contain opposing tight ends. The position averaged 62.6 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game against the Jaguars before their bye week, then Brock Bowers torched them for 12/127/3 in Johnson's first start in Week 9. Since then, tight ends have only averaged 44.9 yards and 0.2 scores per game against the Jaguars.
• "He's important every week," Coen said of Johnson on Wednesday ahead of Sunday's matchup against Buffalo. "But their tight ends, they have a very good tight end room. I think [Dawson] Knox has had a tremendous career, [Dalton] Kincaid's an elite athlete. They're doing a great job in the run game and in the pass game. So, it's a challenge and Antonio's a guy throughout our season who's helped us a whole lot in that way."

The Jaguars faced the easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks by average EPA per dropback (per @sfdata9ers).

• The Jaguars have been battle-tested this season in that they've fought through adversity and defeated a variety of opponents in a multitude of ways. And the last time they faced an elite quarterback, they limited Justin Herbert to a career-low 81 passing yards.
• Still, Jacksonville has benefited from a soft slate of opposing passers. They've faced Brady Cook, Philip Rivers, and Brandon Allen in the past month alone. This isn't the reason why Campanile's defense has been productive, but it sure does help.
• The road to the Super Bowl might have to go through Josh Allen (last year's MVP winner), Drake Maye (this year's MVP favorite), and Bo Nix (probably overrated, but he has a great coach and the No. 1 seed).
• Campanile is already getting head coach interviews despite having only been an NFL defensive coordinator for 17 regular-season games. If his defense can create problems against the AFC's playoff quarterbacks, starting with Allen on Sunday, he could be in charge of an entire organization by the end of the month.

Jacksonville had the league's best average drive starting position (per @sfdata9ers) but allowed the sixth-worst average drive starting position (per 904 Analytics).

• Campanile's defense has helped to create plenty of short fields for Coen's offense, and Jacksonville's special teams unit has been effective on both kick and punt returns.
• However, with punter Logan Cooke having a relatively down year and kicker Cam Little still getting adjusted to the league's new kickoff format, the Jaguars are also providing short fields to their opponents.
• The Field Position Battle is a crucial one. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 19 years as Pittsburgh's head coach, in part because he's a decorated war general when it comes to field positioning. It's more important than ever in the win-or-go-home mode of playoff games.
• The postseason performance of Jacksonville's special teams is an area to monitor, as is the effectiveness of Coen's in-game decision-making. He's been fairly aggressive so far this season in terms of going for it on 4th downs. Will that continue, or will he be more conservative as February 8 nears?

X Factors

K Cam Little

• The second-year placekicker deserves a closer look. This season, Little made the longest and second-longest field goals (68 and 67 yards, respectively) in NFL history. This came after he broke the sport's unofficial record with a 70-yard field goal during the preseason.

• Little is a true weapon, especially in two-minute drills at the end of the first/second half. It's a luxury that the Jaguars only have to reach midfield for Little to have a shot at scoring three points. In fact, they're the only playoff team with that advantage, as Brandon Aubrey's Cowboys and Chase McLaughlin's Bucs are out of the mix.
• It's worth remembering that Little is one of the many Jaguars who looked like a different player after the bye week. After missing five kicks (including an extra point) through the first seven weeks of the season, Little is 20/20 on field goal attempts and 36/36 on extra point attempts since Week 9.
• When the NFL's social media team makes a hype video for the kicker, you know things are going well.

• The value Little offers with his lab-made leg is significant for Jacksonville's chances of a deep playoff run. Just remember: his performance on kickoffs is vital as well.

LT Cole Van Lanen

• By now, everyone in Jacksonville is familiar with Van Lanen, who Coen called "The Swiss-Army knife" earlier this season. Van Lanen has been invaluable to the offense for his ability to play across the offensive line; he's played 40+ snaps at LT, LG, RG, and RT this season.

• The 2021 sixth-round pick (who was traded from Green Bay to Jacksonville in 2022) is suddenly Trevor Lawrence's permanent blindside protector. Van Lanen started at left tackle in place of Walker Little when the latter sustained a concussion in Week 13. When Little was cleared to return, Van Lanen remained the starter. He played well enough to earn a three-year, $51 million contract extension that was signed after the new year.
• It's a good deal for Van Lanen, considering he was a career backup entering this season, and for Jacksonville, which, at a minimum, locked up a solid interior starter with positional versatility and a strong work ethic. Yes, Van Lanen is "intangibly rich."
• If Van Lanen continues to be a viable starter at left tackle, the contract will look even more team-friendly, but the jury is still somewhat out in that regard. He has certainly looked good enough in a small sample to warrant an extension – especially considering the generally poor state of offensive tackle play in the NFL – and he even shut down Pro Bowl edge rusher Nik Bonitto in Week 16. But it is a small sample. Can Van Lanen hold up against playoff-caliber pass rushers for four straight games?
• Unfortunately, there's a remote chance he is unable to suit up on Sunday. A knee injury caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday, though he was on the field in a limited capacity on Thursday. Van Lanen is now a name to keep an eye on for multiple reasons.

OLB Dennis Gardeck

• Gardeck is a former undrafted player who played for seven seasons in Arizona as a special teams ace and part-time linebacker. He tore his ACL in November 2024 and is on the wrong side of 30, so when the Jaguars signed him late in free agency, it was a move that was barely noticed. Most people's biggest takeaway (including mine) was "Hey, the Jags got EDGE depth. Nice."
• Yet Gardeck is no ordinary depth piece. His all-out effort and wide-ranged versatility make him an excellent fit for Anthony Campanile's scheme, which uses multiple fronts/alignments based on play situations.
• On early downs, Gardeck primarily works from the strongside linebacker position with a two-point stance on the line of scrimmage. And he is a thumper. Jacksonville's newest Wildman routinely discards tight ends when met with that disrespectful mismatch, and he has the tenacity and block-shedding ability to handle real linemen as well.
• The hustle that he's shown all season is right up there with LeQuint Allen Jr.

• Gardeck doesn't just make plays because he's a try-hard. It takes a lot of flexibility to bend under a blocker like this.

• Gardeck is a good player out in open space, too. He can survive in coverage when dropping into shallow zones, partly because he has adequate athleticism and awareness for such assignments, but also because he rallies to the ball like few other players I've seen. That fact makes it more impressive that Gardeck doesn't fly into tackles with a lack of control; he hustles like crazy to reach the ball, but once he arrives, he breaks down and patiently waits for the ball-carrier to make a move before executing the tackle with flawless form.
• On late downs, I wonder if we'll see Gardeck deployed as a QB spy.
• He had an excellent rep against his former team back in Week 12. It may have been Jacoby Brissett that he tackled, but Gardeck had no hesitation and put himself in a perfect position to make a play.

Playoff Predictions

Super Bowl teams tend to be pretty good on offense. According to @ClevTA, the last 18 Super Bowl participants – and 24 of the past 26 – finished the regular season in the top 10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback.

Additionally, the 2023 and 2024 Chiefs are the only Super Bowl participants since 2018 not to finish the regular season in the top 10 in explosive pass rate (15+ yards).

So, you gotta be both efficient and explosive through the air to reach the big game.

Here are the 2025 teams that meet both criteria, listed in alphabetical order.

• Buffalo Bills
• Chicago Bears
• Green Bay Packers
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Los Angeles Rams
• New England Patriots
• Seattle Seahawks

I can't say I have much faith in New England (soft schedule), Green Bay (too injured), or Chicago (bad defense). That leaves me with Buffalo or Jacksonville versus Seattle or LA in the Super Bowl. I do agree with the many people who have said, "The winner of Jags-Bills on Sunday will be the eventual AFC champion."

I've already said on Duval 22 and on Cover 1 (a Bills podcast) that I think the Jaguars win big in the Wild Card Round. This has objectively been the hottest team in football over the past two weeks. The stakes may be raised for this game, but it's not like the NFL playoffs are a different sport compared to the regular season, as in the NBA. The only way I see Jacksonville slowing down is if/when they face an elite pass rush... and Buffalo does not have that.

What's more, the Bills will be missing CB Maxwell Hairston, LB Terrel Bernard, and S Damar Hamlin. Coach Sean McDermott high-key bashed general manager Brandon Beane at the podium this week, essentially complaining about a lack of roster talent. Josh Allen's 3,668 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns this season were his worst marks since 2019 because the Bills lack talented wideouts. And while Buffalo does boast one of the league's best rushing offenses, Jacksonville has one of the best rushing defenses.

Maybe it doesn't matter much, but I think it does: the Jaguars have wayyyyy better vibes going into this game.

Jaguars 34, Bills 20.

Jaguars 43, Patriots 27.

Jaguars 30, Broncos 28.

Not long ago, there was a saying among this fanbase, "the Jaguars are bad until they aren't." As in, give this franchise their flowers only when they've proven sustained success. We've been tricked into believing too many times before.

Right now, my thought is, "the Jaguars are great until they aren't." There is a very real chance that they blow through the AFC.

The Rams have their flaws, but they've got the coaching, the quarterback, the weapons, and the pass rush to win it all, regardless of what the rest of the field looks like. If Matthew Stafford had more football ahead of him, we'd be talking about LA as perennial Super Bowl contenders the way we spoke of KC until this season.

McVay got the better of Coen in their first head-to-head matchup. I think the latter will get a rematch opportunity before the end of this NFL season.

Final Super Bowl prediction:

Jaguars 23, Rams 27

Thanks for reading! Check back soon for more Jaguars analysis.