Brian Thomas Jr. hasn't even begun to peak

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The Jacksonville Jaguars' first-round selection of LSU speedster Brian Thomas Jr. was met with positive reviews. Trevor Lawrence got a deep threat!

With Christian Kirk and Evan Engram established as starting pass-catchers, Thomas wouldn't have too much on his plate from the jump. He could immediately take the top off of defenses while developing his route tree over time. Pats on the back all around.

Looking back 15 months later, if the NFL redid the draft, Thomas would not have made it to the 23rd pick. Not by a long shot.

As a 21-year-old rookie, he asserted himself as not just a fear-inducing perimeter receiver, but a bona fide No. 1 wideout who can win at any level of the field.

Thomas finished third in the league in receiving yards on a four-win team, torching record books in the process.

• His 1,282 yards and 10 scores on 87 receptions were all team rookie records.
• His 11 games with 75+ receiving yards were the most ever by an NFL rookie.
• He joined Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., and Ja'Marr Chase as the only rookies to post 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in the Super Bowl era.

Thomas' first season was, in a word, historic.

Even the Jaguars weren't quite sure what they'd be getting in him. Former general manager Trent Baalke loved to draft for potential (see: Walker, Travon) which put pressure on the coaching staff to maximize lab-made athletes.

Thomas has prototypical size (6' 3", 209 lbs), length (70.3" arms), and speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash) for an X-receiver. With such measurements and an FBS-leading 17 touchdown catches in his final collegiate season, it was easy to see his traits translating to the league – but with a limited route tree and relatively low production before 2023, it was hard to say whether he'd develop into an every-down factor.

The Jaguars didn't have lofty Year 1 expectations; Thomas only needed to provide the downfield element that was sorely missing from Doug Pederson's offense. A once-efficient quick passing game featuring Kirk and Engram lost steam when opposing secondaries played closer to the line of scrimmage, suffocating the short and intermediate levels of the field. Jacksonville was desperate for some juice.

It only took about five plays for Thomas to do his job. In the first quarter of the 2024 season opener, he beat All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey downfield to draw a 40-yard pass interference penalty (and let him know about it).

With catches of 58, 66, and 85 yards over the next few games, Thomas verified his vertical range while providing big plays to an offense that needed it.

As the season wore on, injuries to Kirk, Engram, and Gabe Davis put more on Thomas' plate. He was bumped into a bigger role... and dominated.

After the Jaguars' Week 12 bye, Thomas averaged 11.7 targets for 118.6 yards and 1 touchdown per game. For context, Ja'Marr Chase captured the receiving triple crown with 10.3 targets for 100.5 yards and 1 touchdown per game in 17 contests.

The first half of his rookie season was a win in that Thomas gave the Jaguars the field-stretching dynamic they desired. The second half showed that he can single-handedly carry an offense – not just as a boundary threat, but an every-level force.

Need a guy who can beat press-man coverage? Check.

Need a guy who can win over the middle of the field? Check.

Need a guy who can make the most of designated touches? Check.

Thomas may have benefitted from a lack of target competition, but the added responsibilities only accelerated his ascent to stardom.

"Obviously Christian, Gabe, Evan, we had some pieces that we continued to run our offense out of," Pederson said toward the end of the season. The staff originally aimed to "find a niche for Brian and really see what he's capable of doing."

"But as the season progressed, you can see that he can handle more information. He can handle more responsibility. And each week we keep finding ways to load him up and he answers. That's what you want from your top receiver."

What's startling isn't how productive Thomas was as a rookie. It's how much more productive he could be going forward.

Thomas became the offense's focal point by default rather than by design. He was plugged into the system, not prioritized in it. Consider that just 93 of his 1,282 receiving yards came in the first quarter (h/t Daniel Griffis).

He was the league's most efficient per-target player on true dropbacks...

...yet when it came to "schemed up" targets, the Jaguars left meat on the bone.

Some of the most effective targets a receiver can earn are those on in-breaking routes, routes from the slot, routes with motion, routes off play action, or routes with a designed read.

While Thomas posted elite efficiency numbers on those play types, his usage underwhelmed.

Data via Fantasy Points | Each ranking among ~80 qualifying receivers

Unlike those play types, Thomas ranked top-10 in efficiency and volume on passes of 20+ air yards on the season – though he also saw the fifth-most uncatchable targets on such passes.

If he gets more favorable looks, whether it's more accurate bombs, more designed looks, or more effective routes, he'll provide even more juice.

Jacksonville moved on from Pederson in January to hire Liam Coen, the NFL's fifth-youngest head coach at 39 years old. He's only coached in the NFL for five seasons and called plays for one.

That said, his work with the 2024 Buccaneers speaks for itself. Tampa Bay ranked top-five in total yards, points scored, first downs, and just about any other metric out there. (Jacksonville ranked bottom-eight in those first three categories.)

Coen's first season was, in a word, historic.

He may just be the key to fully unlocking Thomas.

"He's so dynamic," Coen said a month after his hiring. "Being able to move him around, where you saw him at LSU, maybe not do some of those things."

"The ability for him to snap down, get in the slot, be able to run some of the choice routes, looky routes, and then, oh, by the way, you can throw him a screen and he can go do something with it. Our pass game will run through him."

There are few faults in Thomas' game. He could stand to improve his awareness against zone coverage, his concentration at the catch point, and his body control on out-breaking routes – but those are areas with room for improvement relative to the rest of his skills rather than true weaknesses.

The real opportunity for growth lies in the things Thomas can't control. If the new coaching staff treats him as a No. 1 caliber receiver, rather than the No. 1 wideout on the depth chart, he could become the most productive playmaker in the league.

"This is a guy that you can move anywhere, you can do anything," Trevor Lawrence said in May. "He is going to find a way to get the ball because he is just that good."

Here's to hoping Coen and co. find as many ways as possible to get him the ball.